This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2019, and the projection to 2046 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2019 to 2.8 million by 2046. In the high scenario, the net gain initially declines to 16,000 by 2024-25, and then rises to reach 20,000 by 2045-46. In the short-term, the growth of Ontario’s population is projected to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through both the disruptions to migration flows resulting from the travel restrictions and the associated slightly higher mortality. Major rivers of the northern system are the Severn, the Winisk, and the Albany, while the major rivers in the southern system are the Ottawa and the French. By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The region’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 47.9 per cent in 2019 to 49.8 per cent in 2046. In 2018-19, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was 12,000. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. The pyramid subsequently narrows to only a few thousand people per cohort at ages 95+. This line chart shows the pace of annual growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario from 1971 to 2046. All other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with growth ranging from 1.4 per cent in Prince Edward to 22.7 per cent in Lanark. Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth (those aged 15–24) is projected to increase throughout the projection period, from 1.9 million in 2019 to almost 2.4 million by 2046. This line chart shows the historical immigration rate to Ontario from 1971 to 2019 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. There were about 580,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs: e.g., foreign students, temporary foreign workers, refugee claimants) living in Ontario on July 1, 2019. Census divisions with less than 50% projected growth in number of seniors over 2019-2046 include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Bruce, Prince Edward, Renfrew, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry. About Us FAQs [2] Based on the Pearsonian approach, a parametric model used to distribute estimated fertility rates by age of mothers. The long-term assumption of a net gain of zero is then reached immediately by 2020–21, remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

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