Find Out When the first signs that fertility had dropped below the replacement level were reported in the early 1990s, they were quickly dismissed in the context of what was believed to be widespread underreporting of births. Be on the lookout for your Britannica newsletter to get trusted stories delivered right to your inbox.

As a result of China’s very low fertility over the past two decades, the abundance of young, inexpensive labor is soon to be history. This is a development unprecedented in both China’s and the world’s history. A lively and informative new podcast for kids that the whole family will enjoy! The challenges posed by these demographic changes will be more daunting in China than in other countries that have experienced mortality and fertility declines. Economic growth relies on a number of basic factors. In just one decade, from 1970 to 1980, the total fertility rate (TFR) was more than halved, from 5.8 to 2.3, a record unmatched elsewhere. In a little more than a decade, however, it will for the first time in its long history give up this title, to India. Despite concerns over the collapse of the rural collective public health care system in the 1980s and increasing incidents and reports of air pollution, food poisoning, and public health crises (such as the SARS epidemic in 2003), the Chinese population’s overall health has continued to improve with the spread of affluence. The latest numbers based on nationally representative surveys put life expectancy at birth at 74.5 years for females and 70.7 for males, levels that approach those of the world’s more developed countries.
However, since the late 1970s China has dramatically increased its interaction with the international economy, and it has become a dominant figure in world trade. For nearly two decades, the average number of children a couple is expected to produce has been less than 2, recently falling as low as approximately 1.5.

As Manchuria developed into the principal industrial region of China, however, large urban centres arose there, and the nature of the migration changed. Such a labor force, a non-repeatable historical phenomenon resulting from a rapid demographic transition, was fortuitously present as the Chinese economy was about to take off. China’s unprecedented population control policy, the one-child policy, turned 30 this year. In contrast to Western European countries, where it took 75 years or longer to reduce TFR from around 5 to the replacement level, in China a similar decline took less than two decades. An imperial decree in 1668 closed the area to further Han migration, but this ban was never effectively enforced. Such a compressed process of demographic transition means that, compared with other countries in the world, China will have far less time to prepare its social and economic infrastructure to deal with the effects of a rapidly aging opulation. A peasant rebellion in Sichuan in the 1640s caused great loss of life there, and people from neighbouring Hubei and Shaanxi then entered Sichuan to fill the vacuum; this migration pattern continued until the 19th century. That number has further grown in the past five years. Great population movements have been a recurring theme throughout Chinese history.

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